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astronomy, autumn, calendar, durin's day, dwarves, equinox, essay, moon, new year, secret door, thorin
Note from D.J. – I am pleased to post this on behalf of guest author Iduna.
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Predicting Durin’s Day
by Iduna
“The first day of the dwarves’ New Year is, as all should know, the first day of the last moon of Autumn on the threshold of Winter. We still call it Durin’s Day when the last moon of Autumn and the sun are in the sky together. But this will not help us much, I fear, for it passes our skill in these days to guess when such a time will come again.” – Thorin Oakenshield (The Hobbit)
Durin’s Day is one of the most important dates on the Dwarvish calendar. It is a festival day, and it signals the beginning of the New Year.
In The Hobbit, Durin’s Day is of critical importance to Thorin’s Company, because it’s the only day of the year when the light will fall at just the right angle to shine on the keyhole of the secret door.
Durin’s Day is their one and only chance to enter the Lonely Mountain.
So it’s surprising to discover that the dwarves don’t know when, exactly, Durin’s Day will be. Why is it so impossible?
Two Steps: Finding Autumn, Finding the Last Moon
One problem with establishing Durin’s Day is that it depends on two completely unrelated planetary cycles – the earth’s annual trip around the sun, and the monthly lunar cycle.
The earth travels around the sun in about 365 days. The moon travels around the earth in roughly 29.5 days. But there is no predictable relationship between the two, so some years could have more lunar months than others. And the beginnings and ends of the lunar months don’t match up evenly with the solstices and equinoxes.
Finding Autumn: It’s September 20 to December 21 (ish)
Durin’s Day happens in autumn. So first, let’s figure out what is meant by autumn.
As the earth moves around the sun over the course of a year, it passes over four points: the two times when the sun crosses the Earth’s equator (Equinoxes), and the moments when the Sun reaches its highest or lowest point in the sky (Solstices).
On the equinoxes, the Sun crosses Earth’s equator, and day and night are of equal length. This usually happens around March 20 and September 20 every year.
On the solstices, Sun reaches its highest or lowest point in the sky, marking the longest day (the summer solstice, usually around June 21) and the shortest day (the winter solstice, around December 21).
In the Northern hemisphere, our four seasons generally occur like this: Spring runs from the spring equinox (March 20, give or take a day) to the summer solstice (around June 22). Summer lasts from the summer solstice to the autumn equinox (September 20, roughly). Autumn generally runs from the autumn equinox to the winter solstice, about December 21, and winter lasts from the winter solstice to the spring equinox.
Middle-earth Calendars: Did Tolkien Do It Differently? No.
Several of the peoples of JRR Tolkien’s Middle-earth had their own calendars – elves, humans and hobbits all have systems for reckoning the dates. But if the dwarves had a separate calendar system, it’s not mentioned in the Appendices to the Lord of the Rings (perhaps the Royal Astronomers of Erebor were victims of the dragon and all their knowledge lost, so that the dwarven refugees ended up adopting the calendars of the people among whom they lived).
In the appendices, we discover that Elves’ and Hobbits’ calendars paid special attention to the middle of the year – a day corresponding to the Summer Solstice (around June 22). For Hobbits, the celebration of Mid-year’s Day was a chief holiday, and it corresponded with the summer solstice, marking the beginning of summer.
Therefore, the seasons according to Tolkien are the same as the seasons in the real world. Autumn runs from the autumn equinox, around September 20, to the winter solstice, around December 21.
Finding the Last Moon
The next step in figuring out when Durin’s Day occurs is to find out when the Last Moon in autumn is.
If we look at Thorin’s speech above, a “moon” must mean an entire 29.5-day lunar cycle, or from a new moon to a new moon, because he talks about the dwarves’ New Year beginning on the first day of the last moon of autumn.
During autumn, a period of about 91 days, there can be between two and three entire moons, with portions of up to two additional moons, depending on the phase of the moon at the autumn equinox.
For instance, in 2013, the moon will be full on September 19th, right before the autumnal equinox on Sunday, September 22, 2013.
The last moon of autumn, meaning the beginning of the last lunar cycle of autumn in 2013, will fall on Tuesday, December 3. So that day will mark the beginning of the dwarves’ New Year.
But is that Durin’s Day? Not quite.
Last Step: Sun and Moon in Sky Together
On Durin’s Day, both the moon and the sun have to be visible in the sky at the same time. This means that the moon can’t be full or new — it’s got to be in the first or last quarter in the sky.
Source: http://www.universetoday.com/88956/how-can-you-see-the-sun-and-the-moon-at-the-same-time/
The diagram above shows that, to see the moon in the sky during the day (when the sun is also visible), the moon must be on the same side of the earth as the sun. Since there is very little sun shining on the moon when it’s brand-new, the best time for the moon to be seen in the sky is when the sun is illuminating it as much as possible.
That means the best time to see it in the daytime sky is between the waxing crescent and the first quarter moon.
Moonrise tables show us when the moon rises in the sky. Here is a link to moonrise tables for the Eastern US:
In December 2013, the moon and the sun will be visible in the sky together sometime between December 9, when the quarter moon will rise a little after noon, and December 17, when the full moon will rise around 5:30 in the evening (and possibly night will have fallen by then).
So between the 9th and 17th of December, the moon and the sun will be visible in the afternoon sky – and the first day when they can be seen together is Durin’s Day.
Now, was that so hard? Um, yes.
It’s not too surprising to think that the dwarves of Thorin’s generation might have had a hard time calculating the moment when Durin’s Day actually came to pass. A dispossessed people, wandering from place to place with only the items they could carry, might not have had access to an observatory or other tools needed to keep track of the planetary cycles.
Even with all the astronomical information at our disposal today, it’s not so easy to figure out when Durin’s Day has arrived, because it depends on what you can see – an overcast day, for example, would make it hard to detect the moon’s presence in the sky.
No wonder the dwarves celebrated Durin’s Day!
Amanda C. (@TheZenPhoenix) said:
Thank you so much for posting this! I have been trying to work out when Durin’s Day would fall, but I haven’t had too much success. Now I know 🙂
Andrew Laubacher said:
A THIRTEEN-MONTH CALENDAR FOR DURIN’S FOLK
J.R.R. Tolkien tells us little about the reckoning of time by the Dwarves and most of that is in The Hobbit. We know that Durin’s Folk (a.k.a. the Longbeards) use a lunar-based calendar that figures significantly in their determination of their New Year’s Day, which falls on the first day of the last waxing crescent moon of Autumn before the onset of Winter (called Durin’s Day in honor of Durin the Deathless if the sun and the moon are in the sky at the same time). We know that their months are divided into week (Thorin to his Dwarf-companions near the doorstep: “Tomorrow begins the last week of autumn.”). They seem to observe the four seasons: Winter, Spring, Summer and Fall. However, we learn precious little else about how the Dwarves reckon time.
The Longbeards are a deeply conservative, orderly and secretive folk. They have private personal names in their own tongue that they do not use in public or if outsiders are present. Other than the odd exclamation, they never speak their own language in the outer world unless they are completely in private. Might the Longbeards have developed a calendar that was unique in the north west of Middle-earth?
I suggest that Durin’s Folk might have devised a calendar of thirteen months, each with four weeks of seven days apiece, with one day falling outside of any month plus a periodic adjustment for the resulting deficit. As Durin’s Folk dwelt primarily in the North, with its long, harsh winters, I am going to suggest that their Winter was four months long, with the outside day falling in the middle as the Yuleday corresponding with the winter solstice. I also suggest that the other three seasons were each three months long. The thirteen month would fall between October and November and its name might be taken from the elven season of quellë to represent the latter part of Autumn and translated into Sindarin as Firith. The Dwarves might have added a leap-day on to Yule ever four years. Alternately, they might have added to leap-days every eight years, making a three-day Yuletide. Here is what I see:
THE RECKONING OF DURIN’S FOLK
Winter
– November
– December
– Yule (one day, except in leap years)
– January
– February
Spring
– March
– April
-May
Summer
– June
– July
– August
Autumn
– September
– October
– Firith (fading; a borrowing from the Elves)
As previously noted, Durin’s Folk do not begin the year strictly on the first day of Winter, but instead observe their New Year’s Day with the first crescent moon following the last new moon of Autumn so that it never falls consecutively on the same day each year. When on that day the sun and the moon are in the sky at the same time, it is called a Durin’s Day.
Stephen said:
I absolutely respect your assumptions. I like the idea you propose for the Dwarves calendar – I only wish Tolkien gave us more to work with. I am waiting for one more reference from inter-library loan – not in my local library – “The History of The Hobbit” by J. R. R. Tolkien and John D. Rateliff. I’m not going to say that Durin’s Day must be in October – only because, like any lunar based system – we have moveable feasts, holiday’s, etc. And I think if we apply the words and symbols then what we really need to do is define autumn, winter, mid-winter, etc. – on any calendar system we use.
I thank you for our discussion – it has been outstanding. Allow me more research time and we shall continue.
With the respect of all free folk…
Cheers
Andrew Laubacher said:
Take all the time you need. I’ll leave you with this thought: In terms of the Shire Reckoning, I think that the Dwarven New Year must begin in October or possibly as late as November 1. It’s only when we attempt to determine the date of the Dwarves’ New Year’s Day on our modern Gregorian calendar that we need to adjust our thinking to a potential range of September 20 to no later than October 22 (assuming our December 21 as a standardized date representing the winter solstice and also represents 2 Yule in the Shire Reckoning. This also posits that the Dwarves might observe only one Yuleday or none). And it is possible that we might be able to further narrow that range.
Stephen said:
This is a bit long-winded but I started it at 0400 this morning…
So last night as I was watching the moon rise something bothered me. The dwarves will have a new year day every year but not necessarily Durin’s Day falling on the new year unless we equate their new year directly to Durin’s Day – if we do that then Durin’s Day is entirely dependent on the definition of winter (when winter starts) ‘and’ the new crescent moon ‘before’ winter (“…on the threshold of winter…”).
There are several references to Tolkien relating the dwarves to the Jews;
“More than three decades after publishing “The Hobbit,” Tolkien spoke about the Jewish-dwarvish connection during a BBC interview.
“I didn’t intend it, but when you’ve got these people on your hands, you’ve got to make them different, haven’t you?” said Tolkien during the 1971 interview. “The dwarves of course are quite obviously, wouldn’t you say that in many ways they remind you of the Jews? Their words are Semitic, obviously, constructed to be Semitic. The hobbits are just rustic English people,” he said.
According to Tolkien scholar John Rateliff, author of a two-volume “Hobbit” history published in 2007, Tolkien drew inspiration from Hebrew texts and Jewish history when developing the dwarves. As craftsmen exiled from a bountiful homeland, the dwarves spoke both the language of their adopted nations and – among themselves – a Hebrew-influenced tongue developed by Tolkien.”
http://www.timesofisrael.com/are-tolkiens-dwarves-an-allegory-for-the-jews/
The assumption that the dwarves calendar was a lunar based calendar similar to the current Jewish calendar is probably good. I had to look up the Jewish calendar to understand some of the nuances and used this page; http://www.jewfaq.org/calendar.htm
I then looked up ‘Middle-Earth’ calendar and found Yule and several other days falling outside the calendar (that’s when I took the extra-strength Tylenol); reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle-earth_calendar
I understand you calling out ‘Blotmath’ as the start of winter in the Shire. But the gap between the Shire Calendar and Dwarvish Calendar is still illusive to me.
So, I googled, ‘time between Durin’s Day and Yule’ and found this explanation; http://forums.cubicle7.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=7&t=3326 which calculated Durin’s Day for 2016 as 02 October in our modern calendar. I looked at the moon phase, moonset and sunset tables and that coincides nicely with the ‘words’ from “The Hobbit” describing the ‘new’ crescent moon in the sky at the same time as the setting sun.
But… I then looked up the chronology of “The Hobbit” and found that between Bilbo arriving at Laketown (22 September) and the Downfall of Smaug (01 October) – Durin’s Day is in September. (Bourbon for breakfast…)
I believe the work you’ve done is credible and based on your assumptions accurate. I also believe my assumptions and conclusions carry equal weight. But how do we reconcile Durin’s Day being between 22 September and 07 November? Defining winter as 01 Blotmath on the Shire Calendar puts us at about a 37 day difference if I count (per Dr. Schaeffer, ‘Griffith Observer,’ Nov, 1994) and define winter as Samhain (~07 November 2016) and Durin’s Day as 02 November 2016 per lunar and solar setting times.
Where is Tolkien when you need him?!
Andrew Laubacher said:
“But… I then looked up the chronology of “The Hobbit” and found that between Bilbo arriving at Laketown (22 September) and the Downfall of Smaug (01 October) – Durin’s Day is in September. (Bourbon for breakfast…)”
I am familiar with that post at the C7 forums because I wrote it. Otaku-sempai at your service!
To what chronology are you referring? The company stayed in Esgaroth for over a fortnight; it could not possibly have departed for the Lonely Mountain until after October 7–and it was possibly a day or two later. Then it took four days of travel just to reach the Mountain, so we are already approaching mid-October before the company has even located the Secret Door. I think that Tolkien’s own estimate of the Durin’s Day of TA 2941 falling on October 19 (Shire-date) was a little short, but only because his lunar-phase calculations were slightly off. October 22 works better (although it could be argued that October 21 works as well or even better).
“I believe the work you’ve done is credible and based on your assumptions accurate. I also believe my assumptions and conclusions carry equal weight. But how do we reconcile Durin’s Day being between 22 September and 07 November? Defining winter as 01 Blotmath on the Shire Calendar puts us at about a 37 day difference if I count (per Dr. Schaeffer, ‘Griffith Observer,’ Nov, 1994) and define winter as Samhain (~07 November 2016) and Durin’s Day as 02 November 2016 per lunar and solar setting times.”
Obvilously the range of September 22 to November 7 is ridiculous and impossible. The Dwarven New Year (and Durin’s Day) must fall within a lunar month of the beginning of Winter for the Dwarves of Erebor. If we accept the beginning of November for the start of Winter then that gives us the month of October (Shire-date) for our range. It’s only when we covert it into the Gregorian calendar that the range shits to September 22 to October 21 in the Common Era. And even then, your mileage may vary according to your conversion method.
If you do not wish to begin Winter until November 7 then the Dwarven New Year cannot fall before October 7 (or 8?) and must occur no later than Novermber 6. And October 7 is much too early for the Durin’s Day of 2941 as the company was in preparation for the departure from Lake-town at that time. Approximately two weeks or more need to be added to that date.
Stephen said:
Hunnewell wrote in a chapter of The Hobbit and Tolkien’s Mythology: Essays on Revisions and Influences (pg. 63) that, “With some effort Tolkien set Durin’s Day to his satisfaction on 17 October (Winterfilth) Shire Reckoning (Tolkien, 1996, 43, 62, 200; Rateliff, 2007, 825-36).”[10]
[10] 17 October is equivalent to our 09 October based on Appendix D.
Assuming that this is the first sighting of the ‘last’ new crescent moon of autumn on the threshold of winter… and therefore is Durin’s Day – what date does winter start TA2941, SR1341?
Andrew Laubacher said:
“Hunnewell wrote in a chapter of The Hobbit and Tolkien’s Mythology: Essays on Revisions and Influences (pg. 63) that, “With some effort Tolkien set Durin’s Day to his satisfaction on 17 October (Winterfilth) Shire Reckoning (Tolkien, 1996, 43, 62, 200; Rateliff, 2007, 825-36).”[10]
[10] 17 October is equivalent to our 09 October based on Appendix D.”
Yes, if you are satisfied with Tolkien’s equating of our New Year’s Day with Shire-date January 9 (two days earlier than I would place it). That places the Mid-year’s Day of the Shire calendar on our June 19. And the arrival of the company in Esgaroth on September 22 (Shire-date) would covert to September 14. Do you see some particular significance to the October 9 date?
“Assuming that this is the first sighting of the ‘last’ new crescent moon of autumn on the threshold of winter… and therefore is Durin’s Day – what date does winter start TA2941, SR1341?”
My best estimate is November 1 (or October 19 on our calendar according to Hunnewell; October 21 by my reckoning).
Stephen said:
All I’m saying is that using the Gregorian calendar for 2016 CE, establishing winter as Samhain, which falls on 07 November and the fact that the last new moon of autumn occurs on 30 October (based on these assumptions); Durin’s Day will either be 01 or 02 November depending on the sighting of the new crescent moon and the sun in the sky together.
Andrew Laubacher said:
Actually, Samhain would correspond pretty closely with the First of November on my proposed 13-month calendar, which would fall 8 weeks (56 days) before the winter solstice (October 26 for us).
I’ve also determined that the seven days of the week might represent the Seven Houses of the Dwarves, while the thirteen months might honor the Thirteen Fathers and Mothers of the Dwarves (Durin being created without a partner and needing to seek out a wife).
As for the reckoning of the Men of Rhovanion and the Hobbits, I don’t believe that they would have had a huge issue with beginning Winter approximately one week earlier (though we still can’t be sure how closely the Shire Reckoning corresponds to the Hobbits’ observances of the seasons before they crossed the Misty Mountains).
Stephen said:
Sir, I believe we’ve reached accord.
Iduna of Erebor said:
Thank you! I’m happy you think I’ve helped.
Bryan said:
do we think it is a coincidence that the movie comes out during the week that this site has determined to be Durin’s day?
Iduna of Erebor said:
I’d like to think that the moviemakers considered it a happy coincidence that they could pick a release date that would arguably match up with Durin’s Day. But if that was their plan, they figured it out long before I ever thought to explore the subject.
Chrisoula said:
I also wondered when Durins Day is upon us. Thank you for this! I know its far-fetched…the movies run at the same time. 😉 Its a kinda magic.
Iduna of Erebor said:
I agree, it is kind of magical!
The Dwarrow Scholar said:
Thank you so much for this article Iduna, very well written and well-thought-out.
I myself believe Durin’s Day this year is not in December, but on October 7th.
Here is why:
http://dwarrowscholar.mymiddleearth.com/2013/09/22/is-durins-day-upon-us/
Chrisoula said:
October 7th… we should celebrate. Well, I `m going to watch the movie…again and counting the days. 🙂
Chrisoula said:
I forgot, thank you!!!
Iduna of Erebor said:
Thanks, Dwarrow Scholar! I think you raise some very good points and as usual your knowledge of Tolkien’s world is impressive. If the peoples of Middle-earth considered the beginning of winter to fall sometime in late October, then Durin’s Day would happen in October as you calculated it.
But if winter begins on the winter solstice, as I’ve argued here, then Durin’s Day would occur in early December. I’d like to think that it works that way, because it does fit well with the release of the movie. 🙂
The Dwarrow Scholar said:
what is stopping us from celebrating it twice ? Just to be on the safe side off course 🙂
Iduna of Erebor said:
That sounds like a great idea! 😀
D.J. said:
That is the same conclusion I came to also 🙂 Cheers!
Andrew Laubacher said:
You missed one important point. The Summmer Solstice marked Midsummer not the beginning of summer. Therefore Yule was Midwinter! The end of autumn could have been observed on Blotmath (November) 15, or less formally at the end of the month. The month of WInterfilth (October) was originally considered by hobbits to be last month of the year, immediately preceding the start of winter, so we might take that into consideration as well. Actually, that might be the key to this discussion.
Iduna of Erebor said:
That is one of the major reasons for the different results, Andrew — by definition, a solstice marks the beginning of the season, not the middle of the season.
Andrew Laubacher said:
Iduna wrote, “…by definition, a solstice marks the beginning of the season, not the middle of the season.” That is only true in a modern sense, Iduna. However, Tolkien was not basing Middle-earth on modern conventions. The older English tradition was to begin winter at the start of December. And Tolkien wrote in Appendix D, “It was a jest in Bree to speak of ‘Winterfilth in the (muddy) Shire’, but according to the Shire-folk Wintring was a Bree alteration of the older name, which had originally referred to the filling or completion of the year before Winter, and descended from times before the full adoption of Kings’ Reckoning when their new year began after the harvest.” Tolkien notes that the names the hobbits used for the months were picked up from the Men of the vales of Anduin and that “similar names were found in Dale and Rohan,” supporting a similar interpretation for those names. Dale and Esgaroth were northern cities where winter weather could be expected early. It might be worth noting that Hobbiton would have been at nearly the same tatitude as Lake-town.
Tolkien also associates Midyear’s Day with the summer solstice (“intended to correspond as nearly as possible to the summmer solstice”). Midyear’s Day and Mid-summer Day were treated as the same day.
The texts simply do not support a December date for Durin’s Day and a case for an October date can be easily made.
Iduna of Erebor said:
Ah, that explains a lot. I wasn’t aware of this old English tradition — thanks for sharing that bit of information.
Andrew Laubacher said:
You are most welcome. If you don’t mind an additional note, a December date for Durin’s Day places the Battle of Five Armies far too late in the year if Bilbo, Gandalf and Beorn were to spend winter and spend Yule at Beorn’s house. You couild make an argument for November 13 (or November 23 on the modern calendar); that would place the BoFA in early December in Shire Reckoning. However I don’t know, off hand, how that works out astronically.
Andrew Laubacher said:
Iduna, the lunar phases for November suggest a date on or around November 20 for Durin’s Day (in Shire Reckoning). Textually, that would make it too close to the end of the month (the beginning of the last week before the onset of winter) if we assume the beginning of December for the start of winter. I have to say, I still like the twenty-second day of Winterfilth (our November 2) better.
My previous post should have read ‘astronomically’. Sorry for the error.
ampitheaterwords said:
I have to admire the people who go through the work of finding out all this information- great for us nerds but pretty useless in real world application. Props to you for fall your digging and pondering
Iduna of Erebor said:
Thank you!
D.J. said:
🙂
Ellen said:
Thank you for your work and please continue!
Don’t believe we can go deep enough into the writings of Tolkien…Living in Europe through WW1 and WW2 , I am sure his goal was to end all wars .
Iduna of Erebor said:
Glad you enjoyed it, Ellen!
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Glen said:
So when does Durin’s Day fall in 2016? According to The Encyclopedia of Arda (if I read it right), it falls on October 15th. I think the author of that article used a different method of calculating it than you use, so what say you?
Andrrew Laubacher said:
Replying to your email, by my best estimate the Dwarven New Year of 2016 should fall on October 2 of the Gregorian calendar.
The dwarves’ New Year would fall in the range of September 19 to October 18 on our modern Gregorian Calendar. Check moonrise/moonset and sunrises/sunset times to determine if a given year includes a Durin’s Day.
2015: October 14
2016: October 2
2017: September 21
2018: October 10
2019: September 29
2020: October 17
2021: October 7
2022: September 27
2023: October 16
2024: October 4
2025: September 23
Assumptions:
1. Durin’s Day, TA 2941 fell on the first day of the last week of the Dwarves’ autumn.
2. The Battle of Five armies was fought late in the eleventh month of Blotmath on the Shire calendar.
3. The Battle of Five Armies was fought approximately three to four weeks after Durin’s Day.
4. Gandalf, Bilbo and Beorn must have left Erebor by the end of Blotmath to reach the Anduin Vales by the beginning of Yuletide (29 Foreyule to 2 Afteryule, or from 18 to 23 December, Gregorian calendar).
5. The Dwarves of Erebor probably observed the beginning of Winter at or near the start of Blotmath (about our October 21, give or take a few days).
6. Rule of Thumb: Subtract 10 days from the Shire Calendar to find the equivalent date on the Gregorian calendar.
Stephen said:
If one follows what “The Hobbit” describes in Chapter XI; “If he lifted his head he could see a glimpse of the distant forest. As the sun turned west there was a gleam of yellow upon its far roof, as if the light caught the last pale leaves. Soon he saw the e ball of the sun sinking towards the level of his eyes. He went to the opening and there pale and faint was a thin new moon above the rim of Earth.”
Both the ‘new’ crescent moon and the sun need to be in the sky at the same time for Durin’s Day. If we assume that the Winter Solstice is ‘mid-winter’ then counting back places the beginning of autumn around Samhain or 07 November. Looking at the astronomical tables for moonrise – the last moon of autumn begins with the new moon of 30 October – science tell us we can’t see the new crescent until it moves some degrees from the sun but generally about 15.5 hours (naked eye observation) – which means, by my calculations, Durin’s Day for 2016 is either 02 or 03 November 2016 – depending on whether one can see the new crescent moon and the sun together at sunset.
I used Dr. Bradley Schaeffer’s work in the November 1994 “Griffith Observer” as a source for the above statement as well as the U.S. Naval Observatory www page on Crescent Moon Visibility, http://aa.usno.navy.mil/faq/docs/crescent.php
Andrew Laubacher said:
Unlike the calendars of the Dunedain, I don’t assume that the People of Rhovanion (with the exception of the Elves) would have kept a strict reckoning of the seasons. WInter could have begun at on November 7 or November 1, though we also don’t know how closely the Dwarves’ observation of the seasons aligned with that of the Men or Hobbits of Wilderland. Even so, we don’t have any direct evidence that it differed significantly from the Shire Reckoning. We are simply told that, from Thorin’s perspective, the Durin’s Day of TA 2941 fell on the first day of the last week of Autumn. The rest is up for interpretation.
Now, my question is how do you conclude that October 30 was a new moon? Especially when Tolkien, by at least one estimate, seems to place it no later than October 19? I also get a different result from Tolkien, but that seems to be my closer alignment with the Shire Midsummer with the summer solstice. Tolkien seems to place Midsummer a couple of days later (or he made a mistake in his calculations). The conversion found at Tolkien Gateway splits the difference.
Stephen said:
My calculations are for Durin’s Day, 2016 of the Common Era. The tables from the USNO have the new moon as 30 October 2016.
Andrew Laubacher said:
“My calculations are for Durin’s Day, 2016 of the Common Era. The tables from the USNO have the new moon as 30 October 2016.”
How is that possible even if you are using November 7 (S.R.) as the beginning of Winter? After the date is converted to the Gregorian calender that places the end of Autumn and the old year (as reckoned by the Men of Rhovanion and the Hobbits of the Anduin Vales) no later than October 26 (October 26 plus 10 days to equal 6 Blotmath). Are you not performing that conversion?
For my part, I am still assuming 1 Blotmath (S.R.) for the start of WInter and the new year in the North, so by my own calculations, that coverts to our own October 21. JRRT’s own conversion (which equates our New Year’s Day with 9 Afteryule) would place the Shire-date of 1 Blotmath at October 19 (C.E.).
Andrew Laubacher said:
Addendum: Or, are you counting November 7 C.E. (16 to 18 Blothmath) as the beginning of WInter?
Stephen said:
Using everything I could find in the text of “The Hobbit” I believe the signs Tolkien left us, real or imagined, point to a new crescent moon visible simultaneously with the setting sun. This must occur with the last moon of Autumn closest to the start of Winter – but – in the new crescent phase. My assumption is that Tolkien used, in some way, the Celtic calendar to include solstices, equinox and cross quarter days. I also assume that mid-winter equates to the Winter Solstice and the beginning of Autumn is the Autumnal Equinox giving us the cross-quarter day of Samhain as the start of Winter.
In 2016, Samhain falls on 07 November, http://www.archaeoastronomy.com/ and my starting point for determining when the last moon of Autumn, on the threshold of winter occurs – noting that it must be a new crescent moon visible with the setting sun – at the same time. According to the moon tables at https://www.timeanddate.com/moon/usa/annapolis – 30 October 2016 is the date for the last new moon in Autumn at 0715 EDT (setting at 1828 EDT) for my location, Annapolis, MD. Research shows – http://aa.usno.navy.mil/faq/docs/crescent.php – that the earliest new crescent moon visible to the naked eye is at about 15.5 hours after the new moon. This is highly dependent on viewing conditions but first glimpse is probably closer to sunset because the light is fading and sunset on 30 October 2016 is 1807 EDT.
15.5 hours after the new moon is 2245 EDT, 31 October 2016 but the moon sets (in the Annapolis, MD area) at 1902 EDT putting us into 01 November before we get both the moon and sun in the correct positions at the same time. On 01 November 2016, the new crescent moon sets at 1939 EDT and the sun sets at 1805 EDT. They could conceivably meet Tolkien’s requirements – but – the moon is only 0.6% illuminated so it could be washed out based on viewing conditions.
Durin’s Day could be as early as 01 November 2016 or more probably 02 November 2016. I base this on the Gregorian calendar only and do not correlate this with any of Tolkien’s calendars described in his appendices.
Because Tolkien used both solar and lunar based calendars and because, I believe, he was influenced by the Celtic calendar – Thorin was close when he said, “…for it passes our skill in these days to guess when such a time will come again.”
But, if we use the ‘words’ that Tolkien used in his books as the sign for Durin’s Day, regardless of any calendar, we can predict Durin’s Day fairly accurately. I chose the Gregorian calendar for 2016 C.E., and based on Tolkien’s words from “The Hobbit,” the solar and lunar rising and setting times for my location and potential viewing conditions; Durin’s Day will be either 01 or 02 November 2016… I caveat this because I am not an astronomer so my astronomical knowledge is based on the research of others and my interpretation of the rise/set tables. I further believe that one can substitute any calendar and with the same information and determine Durin’s Day. I am not as familiar with calendar conversions between the books and the Gregorian calendar so I can only use my space and time as my reference point.
Andrew Laubacher said:
You and I are using different approaches in our methodology. However, we are using some of the same assumptions. We have to have some understanding of how Durin’s Folk reckoned the seasons, particularly how they reckoned the start of Winter, before we can determine the date of the Dwarves’ New Year. We both conclude that November 1 most likely marks the start of Winter for the Dwarves of Erebor (and for the Hobbits). You have not considered that Yule in the North of MIddle-earth is at the end of the twelfth month (December), corresponding closely to the winter solstice, and might be counted as falling outside of the month, as in the Shire’s Yuledays of 1 Yule and 2 Yule. Therefore, the November 1 of the Dwarves should have been in advance of our own by approximately ten days so that our own November 1 should have been their November 10. The Dwarves of Erebor probably reckoned the start of Winter on our October 22. That’s not quite the same result I get by converting from the Shire calendar (October 21), but it’s pretty close. So the Dwarves’ New Year’s Day, being the first day of the last moon of Autumn, cannot fall later than October 21 on our calendar.